Porter's 5 Forces: Part 12

Porter's Five Forces
Assessing the Balance of Power in a Business Situation


The Porter's 5 Forces tool is a simple but powerful tool for understanding where power lies in a business situation. This is useful, because it helps you understand both the strength of your current competitive position, and the strength of a position you're looking to move into.
With a clear understanding of where power lies, you can take fair advantage of a situation of strength, improve a situation of weakness, and avoid taking wrong steps. This makes it an important part of your planning toolkit.


Conventionally, the tool is used to identify whether new products, services or businesses have the potential to be profitable. However it can be very illuminating when used to understand the balance of power in other situations too.
How to Use the Tool:


Five Forces Analysis assumes that there are five important forces that determine competitive power in a situation. These are:


Supplier Power: Here you assess how easy it is for suppliers to drive up prices. This is driven by the number of suppliers of each key input, the uniqueness of their product or service, their strength and control over you, the cost of switching from one to another, and so on. The fewer the supplier choices you have, and the more you need suppliers' help, the more powerful your suppliers are.
Buyer Power: Here you ask yourself how easy it is for buyers to drive prices down. Again, this is driven by the number of buyers, the importance of each individual buyer to your business, the cost to them of switching from your products and services to those of someone else, and so on. If you deal with few, powerful buyers, they are often able to dictate terms to you.
Competitive Rivalry: What is important here is the number and capability of your competitors – if you have many competitors, and they offer equally attractive products and services, then you’ll most likely have little power in the situation. If suppliers and buyers don’t get a good deal from you, they’ll go elsewhere. On the other hand, if no-one else can do what you do, then you can often have tremendous strength.
Threat of Substitution: This is affected by the ability of your customers to find a different way of doing what you do – for example, if you supply a unique software product that automates an important process, people may substitute by doing the process manually or by outsourcing it. If substitution is easy and substitution is viable, then this weakens your power.
Threat of New Entry: Power is also affected by the ability of people to enter your market. If it costs little in time or money to enter your market and compete effectively, if there are few economies of scale in place, or if you have little protection for your key technologies, then new competitors can quickly enter your market and weaken your position. If you have strong and durable barriers to entry, then you can preserve a favorable position and take fair advantage of it.


These forces can be neatly brought together in a diagram like the one below:
To use the tool to understand your situation, look at each of these forces one-by-one.

Brainstorm the relevant factors for your market or situation, and then check against the factors listed for the force in the diagram above.


Then order your free worksheet by sending a blank e-mail to: nyman@consultant.com (subject line: Porter's Worksheet), mark the key factors on the diagram, and summarize the size and scale of the force on the diagram. An easy way of doing this is to use, for example, a single “+” sign for a force moderately in your favor, or “--" for a force strongly against you (you can see this in the example below).


Then look at the situation you find using this analysis and think through how it affects you. Bear in mind that few situations are perfect; however use environmental scanning as a framework for thinking through what you could change to increase your power with respect to each force.
This tool was created by Harvard Business School professor, Michael Porter, to analyze the attractiveness and likely-profitability of an industry. Since publication, it has become one of the most important business strategy tools. The classic article which introduces it is "How Competitive Forces Shape Strategy" in Harvard Business Review 57, March - April 1979, pages 86-93.


Example:
Martin Johnson is deciding whether to switch career and become a farmer - he's always loved the countryside, and wants to switch to a career where he's his own boss. He creates the following Five Forces Analysis as he thinks the situation through:



This worries him:
The threat of new entry is quite high: if anyone looks as if they’re making a sustained profit, new competitors can come into the industry easily, reducing profits;
Competitive rivalry is extremely high: if someone raises prices, they’ll be quickly undercut. Intense competition puts strong downward pressure on prices;
Buyer Power is strong, again implying strong downward pressure on prices; and
There is some threat of substitution.
Unless he is able to find some way of changing this situation, this looks like a very tough industry to survive in. Maybe he'll need to specialize in a sector of the market that's protected from some of these forces, or find a related business that's in a stronger position.


Key points:
Porter's Five Forces Analysis is an important tool for assessing the potential for profitability in an industry. With a little adaptation, it is also useful as a way of assessing the balance of power in more general situations.


It works by looking at the strength of five important forces that affect competition:
Supplier Power: The power of suppliers to drive up the prices of your inputs;
Buyer Power: The power of your customers to drive down your prices;
Competitive Rivalry: The strength of competition in the industry;
The Threat of Substitution: The extent to which different products and services can be used in place of your own; and
The Threat of New Entry: The ease with which new competitors can enter the market if they see that you are making good profits (and then drive your prices down).
By thinking through how each force affects you, and by identifying the strength and direction of each force, you can quickly assess the strength of the position and your ability to make a sustained profit in the industry.
You can then look at how you can affect each of the forces to move the balance of power more in your favor.

Problem Solving - Part 11

The Boston Matrix
(Also called the BCG Matrix, the Growth-ShareMatrix and Portfolio Analysis)Focusing effort to give the greatest returns

If you enjoy visual representations and vivid descriptions of your business then you'll love the Boston Matrix!

Also called the BCG Matrix, it provides a useful way of looking at the opportunities open to you, and helps you analyse which segments of your business are in a good position – and which ones aren’t. That way, you can decide on the most appropriate investment strategy for your business in the future, and where best to allocate your resources.

Understanding the Model
Market Share and Market Growth

To understand the Boston Matrix you need to understand how market share and market growth interrelate.Market share is the percentage of the total market that is being serviced by your company, measured either in revenue terms or unit volume terms. The higher your market share, the higher proportion of the market you control.The Boston Matrix assumes that if you enjoy a high market share you will normally be making money (this assumption is based on the idea that you will have been in the market long enough to have learned how to be profitable, and will be enjoying scale economies that give you an advantage).The question it asks is, "Should you be investing your resources into that product line just because it is making you money?" The answer is, "not necessarily."This is where market growth comes into play. Market growth is used as a measure of a market's attractiveness. Markets experiencing high growth are ones where the total market is expanding, which should provide the opportunity for businesses to make more money, even if their market share remains stable.By contrast, competition in low growth markets is often bitter, and while you might have high market share now, what will the situation look like in a few months or a few years? This makes low growth markets less attractive.

Note:The origin of the Boston Matrix lies with the Boston Consulting Group in the early 1970s. It was devised as a clear and simple method for helping corporations decide which parts of their business they should allocate their available cash to. Today, this is as important as ever because of the limited availability of credit. However, the Boston Matrix is also a good tool for thinking about where to apply other finite resources: people, time and equipment.

The Matrix ItselfThe Boston Matrix categorizes opportunities into four groups, shown on axes of Market Growth and Market Share:

These groups are explained below:

Dogs: Low Market Share / Low Market Growth

In these areas, your market presence is weak, so it's going to take a lot of hard work to get noticed. Also, you won't enjoy the scale economies of the larger players, so it's going to be difficult to make a profit.

Cash Cows:High Market Share / Low Market Growth

Here, you're well-established, so it's easy to get attention and exploit new opportunities. However it's only worth expending a certain amount of effort, because the market isn't growing and your opportunities are limited.

Stars:High Market Share / High Market Growth

Here you're well-established, and growth is exciting! These are fantastic opportunities, and you should work hard to realize them.

Question Marks (Problem Child):Low Market Share / High Market Growth

These are the opportunities no one knows what to do with. They aren't generating much revenue right now because you don't have a large market share. But, they are in high growth markets so the potential to make money is there.Question Marks might become Stars and eventual Cash Cows, but they could just as easily absorb effort with little return. These opportunities need serious thought as to whether increased investment is warranted.

How to Use The Tool:

To use the Boston Matrix to look at your opportunities, then use the following steps:

Step One: Plot your opportunities in terms of their relative market presence, and market growth on the blank matrix provided on the worksheet.

Step Two: Classify them into one of the four categories. If a product seems to fall right on one of the lines, take a real hard look at the situation and rely on past performance to help you decide which side you will place it.

Note:Be careful about these lines - there's nothing magical about them or their position. There may be very little real difference between a "Problem Child" with a market share of 49%, and a "Star" with a market share of 51%. It's also not necessarily true that the line should run through the 50% position. As ever, use your common sense.

Step Three: Determine what you will do with each product/product line. There are typically four different strategies to apply:

Build Market Share: Make further investments (for example, to maintain Star status, or turn a Question Mark into a Star)

Hold: Maintain the status quo (do nothing)

Harvest: Reduce the investment (enjoy positive cash flow and maximize profits from a Star or Cash Cow)

Divest: For example, get rid of the Dogs, and use the capital to invest in Stars and some Question Marks.

Tip 1:From a personal perspective, you can evaluate the opportunities open to you by substituting the dimension of "Market Share" with one of "Professional Skills". Plot the options open to you on the personal version of the BCG Matrix, and take action appropriately.
Tip 2:A similar (and equally powerful) tool is the Action Priority Matrix, which helps you pick projects which legitimately give you the quickest and highest value returns. By using the BCG Matrix and Action Priority Matrix together, you get the best of both worlds!

Key Points

The Boston Matrix is an effective tool for quickly assessing the options open to you, both on a corporate and personal basis.
With its easily understood classification into "Dogs", "Cash Cows", "Question Marks" and "Stars", it helps you quickly and simply screen the opportunities open to you, and helps you think about how you can make the most of them.

The Ansoff Matrix: Part 10

Understanding the risks of different options(Also known as the Product/Market Expansion Grid)

The Marketing Mix and 4 Ps: Part 9

Understanding how to position your market offering


What is marketing? The definition that many marketers learn as they start out in the industry is:


Putting the right product in the right place, at the right price, at the right time.
It's simple! You just need to create a product that a particularly group of people want, put it on sale some place that those same people visit regularly, and price it at a level which matches the value they feel they get out of it; and do all that at a time they want to buy. Then you've got it made!


There's a lot of truth in this idea. However, a lot of hard work needs to go into finding out what customers want, and identifying where they do their shopping. Then you need to figure out how to produce the item at a price that represents value to them, and get it all to come together at the critical time.


But if you get just one element wrong, it can spell disaster. You could be left promoting a car with amazing fuel-economy in a country where fuel is very cheap; or publishing a textbook after the start of the new school year, or selling an item at a price that's too high – or too low – to attract the people you're targeting.


The marketing mix is a good place to start when you are thinking through your plans for a product or service, and it helps you avoid these kinds of mistake.
Understanding the Tool


The marketing mix and the 4 Ps of marketing are often used as synonyms for each other. In fact, they are not necessarily the same thing.


"Marketing mix" is a general phrase used to describe the different kinds of choices organizations have to make in the whole process of bringing a product or service to market. The 4 Ps is one way - probably the best-known way - of defining the marketing mix, and was first expressed in 1960 by E J McCarthy.


The 4Ps are:

Product (or Service)
Place
Price
Promotion


A good way to understand the 4 Ps is by the questions that you need to ask to define you marketing mix. Here are some questions that will help you understand and define each of the four elements:


Product/Service
What does the customer want from the product/service? What needs does it satisfy?
What features does it have to meet these needs?
Are there any features you've missed out?
Are you including costly features that the customer won't actually use?
How and where will the customer use it?
What does it look like? How will customers experience it?
What size(s), color(s), and so on, should it be?
What is it to be called?
How is it branded?
How is it differentiated versus your competitors?
What is the most it can cost to provide, and still be sold sufficiently profitably? (See also Price, below).


Place

Where do buyers look for your product or service?
If they look in a store, what kind? A specialist boutique or in a supermarket, or both? Or online? Or direct, via a catalogue?
How can you access the right distribution channels?
Do you need to use a sales force? Or attend trade fairs? Or make online submissions? Or send samples to catalogue companies?
What do you competitors do, and how can you learn from that and/or differentiate?


Price

What is the value of the product or service to the buyer?
Are there established price points for products or services in this area?
Is the customer price sensitive? Will a small decrease in price gain you extra market share? Or will a small increase be indiscernible, and so gain you extra profit margin?
What discounts should be offered to trade customers, or to other specific segments of your market?
How will your price compare with your competitors?


Promotion


Where and when can you get across your marketing messages to your target market?
Will you reach your audience by advertising in the press, or on TV, or radio, or on billboards? By using direct marketing mailshot? Through PR? On the Internet?
When is the best time to promote? Is there seasonality in the market? Are there any wider environmental issues that suggest or dictate the timing of your market launch, or the timing of subsequent promotions?
How do your competitors do their promotions? And how does that influence your choice of promotional activity?


The 4Ps model is just one of many marketing mix lists that have been developed over the years. And, whilst the questions we have listed above are key, they are just a subset of the detailed probing that may be required to optimize your marketing mix.
Amongst the other marketing mix models have been developed over the years is Boom and Bitner's 7Ps, sometimes called the extended marketing mix, which include the first 4 Ps, plus people, processes and physical layout decisions.


Another marketing mix approach is Lauterborn's 4Cs, which presents the elements of the marketing mix from the buyer's, rather than the seller's, perspective. It is made up of Customer needs and wants (the equivalent of product), Cost (price), Convenience (place) and Communication (promotion). In this article, we focus on the 4Ps model as it is the most well-recognized, and contains the core elements of a good marketing mix.


Using the 4Ps Marketing Mix Model


The marketing mix model can be used to help you decide how to take a new offer to market. It can also be used to test your existing marketing strategy. Whether you are considering a new or existing offer, follow the steps below help you define and improve your marketing mix.
Start by identifying the product or service that you want to analyze.
Now go through and answers the 4Ps questions - as defined in detail above.
Try asking "why" and "what if" questions too, to challenge your offer. For example, ask why your target audience needs a particular feature. What if you drop your price by 5%? What if you offer more colors? Why sell through wholesalers rather than direct channels? What if you improve PR rather than rely on TV advertising?


Tip:

Check through your answers to make sure they are based on sound knowledge and facts. If there are doubts about your assumptions, identify any market research, or facts and figures that you may need to gather.


Once you have a well-defined marketing mix, try "testing" the overall offer from the customer's perspective, by asking customer focused questions:
Does it meet their needs? (product)
Will they find it where they shop? (place)
Will they consider it's priced favorably? (price)
And will the marketing communications reach them? (promotion)
Keep on asking questions and making changes to your mix until you are satisfied that you have optimized your marketing mix, given the information and facts and figures you have available.
Review you marketing mix regularly, as some elements will need to change as the product or service, and its market, grow, mature and adapt in an ever-changing competitive environment.


Key points:


The marketing mix helps you define the marketing elements for successfully positioning your market offer.
One of the best known models is the Four Ps, which helps you define your marketing options in terms of product, place, price and promotion. Use the model when you are planning a new venture, or evaluating an existing offer, to optimize the impact with your target market.

P.E.S.T Analysis - Part 8

Understanding "Big Picture" Forces of Change(Also known as PESTLE, PESTEL, PESTLIED, STEEPLE and SLEPT Analysis)


PEST Analysis is a simple, useful and widely-used tool that helps you understand the "big picture" of your Political, Economic, Socio-Cultural and Technological environment. As such, it is used by business leaders worldwide to build their vision of the future.


It is important for these reasons:

First, by making effective use of PEST Analysis, you ensure that what you are doing is aligned positively with the powerful forces of change that are affecting our world. By taking advantage of change, you are much more likely to be successful than if your activities oppose it;
Second, good use of PEST Analysis helps you avoid taking action that is doomed to failure from the outset, for reasons beyond your control; and
Third, PEST is useful when you start operating in a new country or region. Use of PEST helps you break free of unconscious assumptions, and helps you quickly adapt to the realities of the new environment.


How to use the tool:


PEST is a simple mnemonic standing for Political, Economic, Socio-Cultural and Technological.
To use this tool, follow this three stage process:


Brainstorm the relevant factors that apply to you;
Identify the information that applies to these factors; and
Draw conclusions from this information.

To download our free worksheet to record your analysis, click here!


Tip:The important point is to move from the second step to the third step: it is sterile just to describe factors without thinking through what they mean. However, be careful not to assume that your analysis is perfect: use it as a starting point, and test your conclusions against the reality you experience.

The following factors may help as a starting point for brainstorming (but make sure you include other factors that may be appropriate to your situation):


Political:
Government type and stability
Freedom of press, rule of law and levels of bureaucracy and corruption
Regulation and de-regulation trends
Social and employment legislation
Tax policy, and trade and tariff controls
Environmental and consumer-protection legislation
Likely changes in the political environment


Economic:
Stage of business cycle
Current and project economic growth, inflation and interest rates
Unemployment and labor supply
Labor costs
Levels of disposable income and income distribution
Impact of globalization
Likely impact of technological or other change on the economy
Likely changes in the economic environment


Socio-Cultural:
Population growth rate and age profile
Population health, education and social mobility, and attitudes to these
Population employment patterns, job market freedom and attitudes to work
Press attitudes, public opinion, social attitudes and social taboos
Lifestyle choices and attitudes to these
Socio-Cultural changes


Technological Environment:
Impact of emerging technologies
Impact of Internet, reduction in communications costs and increased remote working
Research and Development activity
Impact of technology transfer

Figure 1 below shows this in diagrammatic format:
Figure 1: PEST Analysis in Diagrammatic Format

Other forms of PEST - PESTLE, PESTLIED, STEEPLE and SLEPT:

Some people prefer to use different flavors of PEST Analysis, using other factors for different situations. The variants are:
PESTLE/PESTEL: Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, Legal, Environmental;
PESTLIED: Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, International, Environmental, Demographic;
STEEPLE: Social/Demographic, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, Legal, Ethical; and
SLEPT: Social, Legal, Economic, Political, Technological
Choose the flavor that most suits you!

Example:

We’re going to avoid giving an example here, because of the huge potential for causing offense: few societies seem perfect to outsiders, and there are few things as irritating as having an outsider criticize one's own country...

However, a broad principle is that things that make activity more difficult for people or organizations raise the cost of doing business: business is either stopped altogether, or costs more as people spend time and money circumventing difficulties. The higher the cost of doing business in a region, the more project profitability is squeezed or eliminated. And given that businesspeople normally have at least some level of intelligence, businesses and projects that could otherwise operate are never launched - meaning that less economic activity takes place. (The lower the amount of economic activity, the poorer and less capable societies tend to be.)
Another broad principle is wherever there is rapid or major change in an area, there are likely to be new opportunities and threats that arise. Smart people and companies will take advantage of the opportunities and manage the threats.

And do remember that few situations are perfect: it is up to us to make the most of the situation in which we find ourselves.

Key Points:
PEST Analysis is a useful tool for understanding the “big picture” of the environment in which you are operating, and the opportunities and threats that lie within it. By understanding your environment, you can take advantage of the opportunities and minimize the threats.PEST is a mnemonic standing for Political, Economic, Social and Technological. These headings are used firstly to brainstorm the characteristics of a country or region and, from this, draw conclusions as to the significant forces of change operating within it.
This provides the context within which more detailed planning can take place to take full advantage of the opportunities that present themselves.

Problem Soving Part 7: SWAT Analysis

SWOT Analysis
Discover New Opportunities. Manage and Eliminate Threats.


SWOT Analysis is a powerful technique for understanding your Strengths and Weaknesses, and for looking at the Opportunities and Threats you face.
Used in a business context, it helps you carve a sustainable niche in your market. Used in a personal context, it helps you develop your career in a way that takes best advantage of your talents, abilities and opportunities.


Business SWOT Analysis


What makes SWOT particularly powerful is that, with a little thought, it can help you uncover opportunities that you are well placed to exploit. And by understanding the weaknesses of your business, you can manage and eliminate threats that would otherwise catch you unawares.
More than this, by looking at yourself and your competitors using the SWOT framework, you can start to craft a strategy that helps you distinguish yourself from your competitors, so that you can compete successfully in your market.


How to use the tool:


To carry out a SWOT Analysis, answer the following questions:


Strengths:


What advantages does your company have?
What do you do better than anyone else?
What unique or lowest-cost resources do you have access to?
What do people in your market see as your strengths?
What factors mean that you "get the sale"?


Consider this from an internal perspective, and from the point of view of your customers and people in your market. Be realistic: It's far too easy to fall prey to "not invented here syndrome". (If you are having any difficulty with this, try writing down a list of your characteristics. Some of these will hopefully be strengths!)
In looking at your strengths, think about them in relation to your competitors - for example, if all your competitors provide high quality products, then a high quality production process is not a strength in the market, it is a necessity.



Weaknesses:


What could you improve?
What should you avoid?
What are people in your market likely to see as weaknesses?
What factors lose you sales?


Again, consider this from an internal and external basis: Do other people seem to perceive weaknesses that you do not see? Are your competitors doing any better than you? It is best to be realistic now, and face any unpleasant truths as soon as possible.



Opportunities:


Where are the good opportunities facing you?
What are the interesting trends you are aware of?
Useful opportunities can come from such things as:
Changes in technology and markets on both a broad and narrow scale
Changes in government policy related to your field
Changes in social patterns, population profiles, lifestyle changes, etc.


Local events


A useful approach for looking at opportunities is to look at your strengths and ask yourself whether these open up any opportunities.
Alternatively, look at your weaknesses and ask yourself whether you could create opportunities by eliminating them.


Threats:


What obstacles do you face?
What is your competition doing that you should be worried about?
Are the required specifications for your job, products or services changing?
Is changing technology threatening your position?
Do you have bad debt or cash-flow problems?
Could any of your weaknesses seriously threaten your business?



Carrying out this analysis will often be illuminating - both in terms of pointing out what needs to be done, and in putting problems into perspective.
Strengths and weaknesses are often internal to your organization. Opportunities and threats often relate to external factors. For this reason the SWOT Analysis is sometimes called Internal-External Analysis and the SWOT Matrix is sometimes called an IE Matrix Analysis Tool.
You can also apply SWOT Analysis to your competitors. As you do this, you'll start to see how and where you should compete against them.


Tip:

SWOT can be used in two ways - as a simple icebreaker helping people get together and "kick off" strategy formulation, or in a more sophisticated way as a serious strategy tool. If you're using it as a serious tool, make sure you're rigorous in the way you apply it:
Only accept precise, verifiable statements ("Cost advantage of US$10/ton in sourcing raw material x", rather than "Good value for money").


Ruthlessly prune long lists of factors, and prioritize factors so that you spend your time thinking about the most significant factors.


Make sure that options generated are carried through to later stages in the strategy formation process.


Apply it at the right level - for example, at product or product line level, rather than at the much vaguer whole company level.


Supplement it with other option-generation tools - none is likely to be completely comprehensive.


Example:


A start-up small consultancy business might draw up the following SWOT matrix:


Strengths:

We can respond very quickly as we have no red tape, no need for higher management approval, etc.
We can give really good customer care, as the current small amount of work means we have plenty of time to devote to customers
Our lead consultant has strong reputation within the market
We can change direction quickly if our approach isn't working
We have little overhead, so can offer good value to customers.


Weaknesses:


Our company has no market presence or reputation
We have a small staff with a shallow skills base in many areas
We are vulnerable to vital staff being sick, leaving, etc.
Our cash flow will be unreliable in the early stages


Opportunities:

Our business sector is expanding, with many future opportunities for success
Our local council wants to encourage local businesses with work where possible
Our competitors may be slow to adopt new technologies


Threats:

Will developments in technology change this market beyond our ability to adapt?
A small change in focus of a large competitor might wipe out any market position we achieve.
The consultancy may therefore decide to specialize in rapid response, good value services to local businesses. Marketing would be in selected local publications, to get the greatest possible market presence for a set advertising budget. The consultancy should keep up-to-date with changes in technology where possible.

You can see this analysis in diagram format in figure 1 below.

Key points:

SWOT Analysis is a simple but powerful framework for analyzing your company's Strengths and Weaknesses, and the Opportunities and Threats you face. This helps you to focus on your strengths, minimize threats, and take the greatest possible advantage of opportunities available to you.

Risk Analysis & Risk Management

Evaluating and Managing the Risks You Face

Almost everything we do in today's business world involves a risk of some kind: customer habits change, new competitors appear, factors outside your control could delay your project. But formal risk analysis and risk management can help you to assess these risks and decide what actions to take to minimize disruptions to your plans. They will also help you to decide whether the strategies you could use to control risk are cost-effective.


How to use the tool:


Here we define risk as 'the perceived extent of possible loss'. Different people will have different views of the impact of a particular risk – what may be a small risk for one person may destroy the livelihood of someone else.


One way of putting figures to risk is to calculate a value for it as:


risk = probability of event x cost of event

Doing this allows you to compare risks objectively. We use this approach formally in decision making with decision trees.

To carry out a risk analysis, follow these steps:

1. Identify Threats:

The first stage of a risk analysis is to identify threats facing you. Threats may be:

• Human - from individuals or organizations, illness, death, etc.
• Operational - from disruption to supplies and operations, loss of access to essential assets, failures in distribution, etc.
• Reputational - from loss of business partner or employee confidence, or damage to reputation in the market.
• Procedural - from failures of accountability, internal systems and controls, organization, fraud, etc.
• Project - risks of cost over-runs, jobs taking too long, of insufficient product or service quality, etc.
• Financial - from business failure, stock market, interest rates, unemployment, etc.
• Technical - from advances in technology, technical failure, etc.
• Natural - threats from weather, natural disaster, accident, disease, etc.
• Political - from changes in tax regimes, public opinion, government policy, foreign influence, etc.
• Others - Porter's Five Forces analysis may help you identify other risks.
  

This analysis of threat is important because it is so easy to overlook important threats. One way of trying to capture them all is to use a number of different approaches:

Firstly, run through a list such as the one above, to see if any apply

Secondly, think through the systems, organizations or structures you operate, and analyze risks to any part of those

See if you can see any vulnerabilities within these systems or structures

Ask other people, who might have different perspectives.

2. Estimate Risk:

Once you have identified the threats you face, the next step is to work out the likelihood of the threat being realized and to assess its impact.
One approach to this is to make your best estimate of the probability of the event occurring, and to multiply this by the amount it will cost you to set things right if it happens. This gives you a value for the risk.

3. Managing Risk:

Once you have worked out the value of risks you face, you can start to look at ways of managing them. When you are doing this, it is important to choose cost effective approaches - in most cases, there is no point in spending more to eliminating a risk than the cost of the event if it occurs. Often, it may be better to accept the risk than to use excessive resources to eliminate it.

Risk may be managed in a number of ways:

By using existing assets:Here existing resources can be used to counter risk. This may involve improvements to existing methods and systems, changes in responsibilities, improvements to accountability and internal controls, etc.

By contingency planning:You may decide to accept a risk, but choose to develop a plan to minimize its effects if it happens. A good contingency plan will allow you to take action immediately, with the minimum of project control if you find yourself in a crisis management situation. Contingency plans also form a key part of Business Continuity Planning (BCP) or

Business Continuity management (BCM).

By investing in new resources:Your risk analysis should give you the basis for deciding whether to bring in additional resources to counter the risk. This can also include insuring the risk: Here you pay someone else to carry part of the risk - this is particularly important where the risk is so great as to threaten your or your organization's solvency.

4. Reviews:

Once you have carried out a risk analysis and management exercise, it may be worth carrying out regular reviews. These might involve formal reviews of the risk analysis, or may involve testing systems and plans appropriately.

Key points:

Risk analysis allows you to examine the risks that you or your organization face. It is based on a structured approach to thinking through threats, followed by an evaluation of the probability and cost of events occurring.

Risk analysis forms the basis for risk management and crisis prevention. Here the emphasis is on cost effectiveness. Risk management involves adapting the use of existing resources, contingency planning and good use of new resources.